Today's observation 3-25: Molybdenum prices both at home and abroad are falling. When will the bottom be reached?

[Molybdenum concentrate prices fall in stalemate]

Recently, the domestic molybdenum concentrate market has shown a stalemate and wait-and-see game. On the one hand, due to the dual pressures of the severe inversion of ferromolybdenum prices and the continued decline in international molybdenum oxide, the sentiment of the domestic molybdenum concentrate market has weakened, and the short-term bearish outlook is obvious. Some market participants believe that the price of 1,700 yuan/ton kWh is more difficult to support, bringing the molybdenum concentrate market to wait and see. On the other hand, the prices of mainstream mines have always been relatively strong, and low prices are obviously reluctant to sell. As a result, market transactions are scarce and worries continue to increase.

On the whole, the short-term decline in the price of molybdenum concentrate has become a consensus, but there are certain differences in the extent of the downside.

[Ferro-molybdenum market continues to be sluggish, steel bids to postpone entry]

Today's mainstream quotation of ferromolybdenum is 112-115 million yuan/basis ton. As of today, the total amount of ferro-molybdenum from steel in March is 6,660 tons. Today, the steel-molybdenum market is quiet. Molybdenum prices are slightly weak, and downstream steel companies' purchase plans are postponed, and purchases are made on demand. Inquiries for ferromolybdenum bulk continue to be sluggish, and downstream companies purchase cautiously. At the same time, some ferromolybdenum companies still have relatively high inventories.

[International molybdenum prices continue to fall]

Yesterday, a deal was concluded at Busan Port at US$11/lb molybdenum. At the same time, some holders have increased their low-price reluctance. On the one hand, as international molybdenum oxide prices continue to fall, whether the import window can be opened again has become a topic of concern in the market. As of March yesterday, the average international molybdenum oxide price was still at the level of US$12 per pound of molybdenum, and the import window was still temporarily closed. . On the other hand, although the domestic and foreign molybdenum markets have weak liquidity, the emotional impact is more obvious. At the same time, the increase in Asian inventories and the reduction in liquidity due to poor transactions also test the mentality of the international market.

[I think]

The domestic molybdenum market has been in a stalemate in the upstream and downstream games for some time. The domestic molybdenum market has oscillated and adjusted under the dual pressures at home and abroad, but the space and scope are relatively limited and slow. The overall domestic macro-environment and terminal demand areas, whether it is stainless steel or special steel, have not experienced significant fluctuations, and the fundamentals of the market have not changed.